Is Catholicism on the decline?

Carlin explores the state of the Church

David Carlin, a professor of sociology and philosophy at CCRI, has been a keen observer of politics and of Catholicism throughout his career. When the recent transition in the Papacy brought both to the forefront of media attention, Carlin’s expertise made him an important source. A lifelong Democrat, he served 12 years in the Rhode Island Senate representing Newport, which he and his family have called home for 33 years, and Jamestown. He also served as chair of the Democratic Party in Newport. Carlin is a Catholic, but makes clear that he studies the sociological impacts of the evolution of the Catholic Church, and that he does not consider himself in any way a theologian.

In a recent op-ed piece contributed to The Providence Journal, Carlin explored the likely reaction of liberal Catholics to the naming of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, now known as Benedict XVI, as successor to Pope John Paul II. He comments on the expected disappointment that liberal and progressive Catholics will find with the new Pope, noted by many for his conservative views. His piece reflects comments he made in an interview prior to the choosing of Benedict XVI.

“Catholicism is a religion steeped in a couple thousand years of tradition,” says Carlin. “For it to try to accommodate those who believe it should be liberalized would be discordant with the tenets that the Church was built upon. It would be essentially making the religion an entirely new entity, no longer Catholic.”

Carlin’s studies of the Catholic Church were published in his recent book, The Decline and Fall of the Catholic Church in America. Though some may attribute this “fall” to the recently publicized strife with accusations of abuse, a hierarchy often willing to turn a blind eye and various other wrong-doings, Carlin argues that the roots of decline stretch back 40 years or so. The book describes the “perfect storm” of three cultural phenomena that have, in his opinion, led to the dwindling numbers in the Catholic Church.

It began with the newfound status enjoyed by Catholics with the rise to prominence of several individuals, such as the Kennedys, who took Catholics from second-class status in a formerly strict Protestant climate to well-respected members of society. At roughly the same time that Catholics were dealing with this identity shift, the Second Vatican Council redefined some of the practices and stances of the Church, some thought too much and others too little. To set the last nail, the cultural revolution of the 1960s was turning all of American society on its end, secularizing and liberalizing a vast portion of society. Carlin theorizes that, with all their familiar guideposts now changed, Catholics in the U.S. started to splinter in various directions and the one unified force that was the Catholic Church was now in disarray.

Carlin’s upcoming book, still untitled, will explore how the clash within religion has spilled over into politics. He examines the relationship that the Democratic party has had with the Church, and focuses on how the concept of “liberalism” has evolved and changed throughout American history, especially in the 20th and 21st centuries.

About the many, mostly highly educated, Catholics who hope that the Church will eventually soften its stance on abortion, accept homosexuality, relax its views on pre-marital sex and birth control, and perhaps even permit priests to marry or women to aspire to higher leadership in the Church, he says that there are three likely scenarios during the current Papacy. They will either remain Catholic and tolerate their own feelings of dissonance, or they will join another church that better fits their world views, or they will drift away from institutionalized religion altogether.

Carlin’s predictions for the Catholic Church? He says that the Church will survive as an institution. Because the liberal faction tends to be highly educated and have access to higher incomes and influence, he says, their voice is often disproportionate to their true numbers.

Says Carlin, “The Church will persist.” It will likely be smaller and more orthodox, and less politically and culturally important, but it will thrive in its own sphere of influence while remaining true to its roots."